Update on Latest Oil Prices

Crude oil futures fell back from their early-July $145/bbl peak, but remain high, supported by a meagre 2Q08 stockbuild, tight distillate markets and ongoing geopolitical risks. Refiners are paying record premiums for distillate-rich crudes in an effort to bolster yields; however, weak gasoline and fuel oil cracks are keeping refining margins low.

Non-OPEC supply is seen rising 640 kb/d to 50.6 mb/d in 2009, following a late-year increase in 2008, with Asia, the Caspian, Brazil, Canada and the US adding to supplies. In addition, NGLs from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Nigeria and Iran underpin the 810 kb/d expansion in OPEC gas liquids in 2009.

OPEC crude supply increased by 350 kb/d in June to 32.4 mb/d, as Saudi Arabian supply rose to 9.45 mb/d and exports from floating storage lifted Iranian supply to 3.8 mb/d. Although higher supply lowers effective OPEC spare capacity to 1.7 mb/d, increases from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq and Nigeria lift overall capacity by around 1.0 mb/d by end-2008.

Global oil product demand is expected to grow by 1.1% or 860 kb/d to 87.7 mb/d in 2009, on a par with 890 kb/d growth in 2008. High oil prices contribute to a contraction in OECD oil product demand, offset by robust growth in developing economies. Strong non-OECD consumption also offsets downward revisions elsewhere, lifting 2008 demand by a modest 80 kb/d.

A counter-seasonal US crude stock draw restricted the May OECD total oil stockbuild to 23.9 mb, only half its usual gain. Preliminary June data suggest a total 2Q08 OECD stock change of around +100 kb/d, well below the five-year average 2Q build of 900 kb/d.

3Q08 global refinery throughput is revised down by 0.4 mb/d to 75.3 mb/d on weak OECD demand and poor margins. The addition of 2 mb/d of crude distillation capacity and significant investment in upgrading units elsewhere should keep gasoline markets well supplied and slightly ease middle distillate tightness during early 2009.